If you’re a rental owner in North Texas, you’ve probably heard the Dallas landlord appreciation myth—the idea that holding a property long-term guarantees massive future. You’ll hear the same line over and over:

“I’m holding this rental because appreciation in Dallas is incredible.”

And yes — during 2020 through early 2022, appreciation was incredible.
Home values climbed 35–40% in less than three years, rents shot upward, and every landlord suddenly felt like a seasoned investor with a Midas touch.

But markets don’t move in straight lines forever.
And the truth is this:

The long-term appreciation rate across the Dallas–Fort Worth MSA is not 20% or 10% — it’s closer to 4.5%–5% per year.

That’s the reality hiding behind all the hype.

Yet thousands of landlords are still holding onto rentals they break even on — or even lose money on — believing appreciation will bail them out.

They’re making decisions from the rear-view mirror, not the windshield.

This post breaks down what’s REALLY happening in the DFW market, why appreciation is overvalued as a strategy, and why selling on terms often produces far better returns — including a large upfront check and predictable monthly income.

1. DFW Appreciation: The REAL Long-Term Numbers (Not the COVID Spike)

Let’s start with actual, fact-based long-term data.
Not headlines.
Not hype.
Not “my friend’s house went up $200k.”

Across the entire Dallas–Fort Worth MSA, long-term appreciation (20-year CAGR) averages:

~4.5% to ~5.2% per year

Here’s the detailed, county-by-county breakdown — the stuff no YouTube guru ever shows:

🟦 Dallas County — ~4.4% per year

Older housing, lower affordability ceilings, and more turnover keep appreciation grounded.

Submarket breakdown:

Dallas: ~4.3%
Garland: ~4.4%
Grand Prairie (Dallas side): ~4.6%
Mesquite: ~4.2%
Irving (south corridor): ~4.4%

Takeaway:
Dallas County is stable but not a rocket ship.

🟧 Tarrant County — ~4.7% per year

Greater affordability and suburban sprawl keep Tarrant steadily above Dallas County.

Submarkets:

Fort Worth: ~4.5%
Arlington: ~4.6%
Mansfield: ~5.0%
North Richland Hills: ~4.8%
Grapevine: ~5.1%

Takeaway:
A touch stronger than Dallas County — but still under 5%.

🟩 Denton County — ~5.0% per year

Massive population inflows and strong school districts drive consistent demand.

Submarkets:

Frisco (Denton side): ~5.3%
Denton: ~4.9%
Lewisville: ~4.8%
Little Elm: ~5.1%
The Colony: ~5.0%

Takeaway:
One of the strongest appreciation counties in DFW.

🟦 Collin County — ~5.3% per year

The powerhouse of the metroplex. Corporate relocations, income growth, and new infrastructure fuel higher appreciation.

Submarkets:

Plano: ~5.1%
McKinney: ~5.3%
Allen: ~5.2%
Prosper: ~5.5%
Frisco (Collin side): ~5.4%

Takeaway:
The top-performing major county long-term — but note: 5.3% is not 20%.

🟧 Rockwall County — ~4.9% per year

Growing demand for lakeside and suburban living, but still averages under 5%.

Submarkets:

Rockwall: ~4.9%
Heath: ~4.9%
Fate: ~4.8%

🟩 Kaufman County — ~5.0% per year

Affordability and proximity to Dallas push rising demand.

Submarkets:

Forney: ~5.0%
Terrell: ~4.6%
Crandall: ~4.9%

🟦 Johnson County — ~4.5% per year

More rural, more spread out, and lower price points.

Submarkets:

Burleson: ~4.6%
Cleburne: ~4.3%
Alvarado: ~4.4%

The Big Picture: DFW Appreciation Is Good… Not Magical

Once you look past the 2020–2022 anomaly, you see the truth clearly:

Most of DFW appreciates around 4.5%–5% per year over decades.
A few pockets (Collin/Denton) hit ~5.2%.
No major area sustains double-digit growth long-term.

That means landlords who are losing cash flow while holding “for appreciation”
are essentially speculating — hoping for a repeat of a once-in-a-lifetime spike.

2. The Rising Cost Crisis No One Talks About

DFW landlords aren’t selling because they want to — they’re selling because the math has changed.

Here are the real culprits:

✔ Property Taxes

The Dallas MSA has some of the highest effective tax rates in the country.

Tax bills in many areas have increased 25–40% since 2019.

✔ Insurance Premiums

Texas is now one of the most expensive insurance markets in the U.S.
DFW premiums are up 30%–70% for many homeowners since 2018.

Why?

Hail storms
Wind events
Increased rebuilding costs

Holding onto a rental becomes a silent drain.

✔ Maintenance & Labor

Material and contractor costs remain permanently higher post-2020.

Even modest CapEx now bites:

HVAC: $8,000–$12,000
Roof: $11,000–$20,000
Water heater: $2,000–$3,500
Foundation work: $4,000–$15,000

Repairs alone can wipe out a full year (or more) of appreciation gains.

✔ Interest Rates

Anyone who bought with adjustable loans or DSCR financing is feeling the pain:

Lower DSCR coverage ratios
Higher monthly payments
Negative cash flow

✔ Tenant Turnover & Vacancies

Even “good tenants” are moving more frequently due to employment shifts.
Turnover often eats $3,000–$7,000 per occurrence.

Bottom line:

Costs in DFW are rising faster than property values.
Appreciation can’t cover the gap for struggling landlords.

3. The Crystal Ball Problem: You Can’t Predict Future Appreciation

This is the part landlords don’t want to hear:

Nobody has a crystal ball — only a rear-view mirror.

It’s easy to think appreciation is guaranteed when:

Home prices soared 40% during COVID
Out-of-state buyers flooded DFW
Cheap money pushed prices up rapidly

But those conditions are gone.

The future includes:

Higher interest rates
Higher insurance
Higher property taxes
Softening rent growth
Increasing inventory
Fewer corporate relocations than 2021–22

Could prices rise another 30% in 3 years?
Maybe.

Could prices flatten for 5 years?
Yes.

Could inflation-adjusted appreciation be zero?
Also yes.

Waiting for appreciation is gambling.
Selling on terms is strategy.

4. The Math Most Landlords Don’t Do (But Should)

Here’s what 4.5%–5% appreciation looks like in practice:

DFW rental value: $350,000
20-year appreciation average @ 4.7%: $16,450/year

Now subtract real-world holding costs:

Tax increases: $800–$1,200
Insurance increases: $500–$800
Maintenance: $2,000–$3,000
Vacancy/turnover: $1,500–$2,500
CapEx reserve: $2,500–$3,500

Total carrying drag: ~$7,300–$11,000 per year

Which means:

Net appreciation after costs ≈ $5,000–$8,000 per year
— NOT the $20k–$30k most landlords assume.

Is that worth the stress, risk, and expense of holding?

Rarely.

5. The Better Alternative: Sell on Terms & Get a Big Check

This is where sophisticated investors separate from accidental landlords.

When you sell on terms (seller financing or hybrid structures), you often get:

✔ A large upfront down payment

Often 10%–20%, depending on buyer type.

✔ Monthly income without repairs

You become the bank — NOT the landlord.

✔ No more taxes, insurance, tenants, or maintenance

Your responsibility becomes paper, not property.

✔ A higher sale price

Terms buyers often pay above appraised value because they value monthly affordability.

✔ Predictable passive income

Fixed payments.
Fixed amortization.
No surprises.

For many landlords, selling on terms outperforms:

Renting
Waiting for appreciation
Holding for cash flow
Conventional sales

Especially during periods where costs run hotter than appreciation.

6. Appreciation Should Be a Bonus — Not a Strategy

Appreciation is wonderful.

It’s real.
It’s powerful.
It builds wealth.

But:

It’s inconsistent
It’s unpredictable
It doesn’t pay the bills
It doesn’t fix roofs
It doesn’t offset insurance increases
It doesn’t prevent tenants from leaving

As a strategy?

Appreciation is the weakest reason to hold a rental.

As a bonus?

Perfect.

But basing your entire exit plan on hope is one of the biggest mistakes DFW landlords make.

Final Thoughts: Stop Hoping — Start Harvesting

The Dallas–Fort Worth market is strong.
But strength doesn’t equal runaway appreciation.

The long-term numbers are clear:

DFW averages 4.5%–5.2% appreciation — not 20%.

Meanwhile:

Taxes are rising
Insurance is rising
Maintenance is rising
Rents are slowing
Regulation is creeping
CapEx is more expensive
Carrying costs eat profits fast

If you’re breaking even today while holding out for a future payoff, you’re not investing — you’re waiting.

Lonestar Partners can help!

We have options to get out out of your property and collecting a monthly check at the same time. Fill out the form below or call us at 469-727-6413 to discuss the best option for you.